08 June 2009

EU '09 Elections: And the big winner of the night is…

…Yasmina.

No, that's not the name of some random party in the EU. She happens to be the winner of the season of The Apprentice, hosted by entrepreneur (and newest member of Gordon Brown's dwindling Cabinet ranks as the "enterprise czar" and peerage) Sir Alan Sugar. The show's finale, which was moved up from this Wednesday as to avoid conflict with a World Cup qualifier for England, was aired on BBC1, as European Parliament election results were relegated to BBC2. Whether this is a cause or effect as to the lack of understanding and/or relevance for the European Parliament is for debate, but BBC's programming decision reflects the latter at the least.

Which easily coincides with the vote swinging away from Labour and not to the Conservatives and LibDems, but parties outside the Westminster Three, namely the ubiquitous Greens, Eurosceptic UKIP and the far-right British National Party. Yesterday as the Labour vote total fell dramatically, further degrading the longevity of Gordon Brown's stay at 10 Downing, the swing and lower voter turnout was dramatic enough to where in the North West and Yorkshire, two BNP candidates emerged victorious as the final recipient of seats to the European Parliament from each region. Naturally, established and centre-catering parties are alarmed over the success of the BNP, who actually had a lower vote total than in 2004.

What does this mean for the next general election? For one, it means the prime minister's resolve winds up hardening as to toughing it out for all 361 days until the latest date possible for a Parliamentary election, provided he doesn't get trampled by enough backbenchers during a party caucus meeting tonight in the Palace of Westminster. UKIP's resounding third-place finish in 2004 was squandered when in-fighting between the party leadership and eccentric talk show host Robert Kilroy-Silk, who defected to start Veritas, but with an increase vote total last weekend, UKIP could give entrenched pro-EU candidates, particularly Conservatives, a challenge. As for BNP, the fact that four candidates succeeded to earn seemingly substantial posts (two county councillors and now two MEPs) will put a larger bullseye on them. Will that in turn increase their desire to get their message out and/or put more wool on the wolf? Will enough of Middle England, upset with the excesses of Parliament, realise the risk of doing nothing and instead find a completely different, more sensible option?

We shall see in the coming weeks. Or days if Labour's implosion is fulfilled this week.

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