31 March 2011

Fayetteville Finger, Meet Nolte's Notch

Being situated in Missouri's unofficial 118th County, naturally I've been keeping an eye on the redistricting efforts in the Natural State. Today, Arkansas's House approved a measure that would draw Fayetteville and southeastern Washington County into the Democrat-leaning Fourth Congressional District and out of the third, which currently is centered on the I-540 corridor. The vote went 52-46, with only one of Fayetteville's reps voting for the proposal.

So the talk of gerrymandering down here has giving me a sharpened set of eyes to review the proposed map that Missouri's House Redistricting Committee has placed on its Web site and discussed in earnest today. Naturally, the presumed "odd man out" Russ Carnahan joined with likely primary opponent William Clay in opposing the proposal to split St. Louis City and County among two districts. And with Missouri having to redraw to account for one less district, there will be plenty of fighting in the six weeks remaining in the General Assembly's session.

And while most of the state's focus will be on St. Louis (again, because a member of the Carnahan dynasty is pretty much the "odd man out"), lines have shifted considerably in the Western half of the state.

Consider the current setup of Kansas City and, by extension, the Athenian corridor better known as Highway 63: (derived from The National Atlas' map of Missouri's current delegations)

After the 2000 Census, Jackson County was split between three congressional districts, the bulk containing Kansas City in the Democrat-leaning fifth, a sliver in the stalwart fourth, and an increasingly conservative suburban region added to the expansive sixth. Columbia anchored the ninth district that covered Northeast Missouri and added counties along the northernmost reaches of the Ozarks.

Now, under the House's initial plan, we have this:

Lafayette, Ray, and Saline counties would be added to the fifth, and in exchange for losing Ike Skelton's stomping grounds, the fourth would receive Howard and Cooper counties from the sixth, plus Columbia in Boone County and the southern half of Randolph County, including all of Moberly. The remainder of the ninth would go to the sixth in the north and a new third district in the south. Miller County, which was originally at the edge of the district and jutting between the fourth and sixth, now becomes a critical retention point as the home county of incumbent Blaine Leuktemeyer. To that effect, Cole and most of Camden are added to this re-designated district.

The wonkiest drawings here, though, take place along the major byways of Kansas City's suburbs. With Jackson County's overall population showing little growth, adding Ike's core counties (traditionally Democrat) didn't do enough to bring the district's population up to snuff. Especially after the current portion in Cass County was moved to the fourth, as to ensure that incumbent Vicky Hartzler had the entirety of her home county. And with Eastern Jackson County solidly leaning Republican, placing them in the fifth would cause displeasure in their ranks, despite Sam Graves having to cross through the fifth to get there by car. So enter Clay County, a decent mix of suburbs to the south and west, farmland points north and east:


The line in red denotes the county line not marking the boundary between the two districts. Note that with Jackson to the south and Ray to the east, the fifth district would claim two significant population areas: Excelsior Springs and Lawson in the northeast corner, and several gentrified suburbs in the southwest. While these areas have historically leaned Democratic, this (as well as every other district being redrawn or not being redrawn for lack of enough population to warrant multiple districts in a state) guarantees nothing come November 2012.

Hence, labeling this convenient drawing of the line meandering through Jackson and Clay counties "Nolte's Notch", so named for State Representative and former Gladstone mayor Jerry Nolte. Nolte has generated plenty of attention with proposed this legislation this year, particularly his bills pegging the state's minimum wage to the federal minimum wage, requiring drivers tests to be administered in English, and eliminating the franchise tax over the next five years. Nolte, who is term-limited from the House after 2012, piqued the pundits' attention when he created an exploratory committee to look at a run for Congress when Graves was flirting at the prospect of challenging Claire McCaskill for the Senate.

Less than 24 hours after Nolte filed exploratory paperwork, Graves announced he would prefer staying in the House as chairman of the Committee on Small Businesses. When interviewed by Roll Call's Tricia Miller later that week, Nolte indicated that he would still consider a run for Congress if he happened to be going up against Emmanuel Cleaver, current representative from the fifth.

Cleaver, the AME preacher who was mayor of Kansas City from 1991 to 1999, received a scare from perennial Republican challenger Jacob Turk in 2010. Cleaver won re-election with only 53 percent of the vote, and now serves as chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus.

So lo and behold: Nolte's Notch, encompassing North Kansas City, Gladstone, Claycomo, Gracemor and Birmingham. A chance for him or any Republican who didn't want to challenge Graves or Hartzler to take their aim on Cleaver, and by extension anything remotely to the left of them.

Of course, the Senate has yet to release their proposal, and both are subject to changes large and small as the next six weeks play out. And it's not yet known how the Blue Dog counties of Ray, Lafayette, and Saline would react to being represented by either a minority Democrat from the urban core or a suburbanite Republican from a county that backed Proposition B by a two-to-one margin. But if the House's plan were to hold firm, Missouri could end up with one Democrat out of eight in their House delegation. Presuming, rather prematurely, the chips fall the same way in 2012 the way they did in 2010.

23 March 2011

A Refresher Course For Mike

A Primer From Someone Who Pretty Much Did The Same Thing Mike's Doing:
Left Missouri To Return To An Old Job Just Outside The State


Things have changed rapidly in Northwest Arkansas since the last time Mike Anderson held a job here. Heck, even some things changed since I was last employed south of the border some 22 months ago. But now, since I've been here the last five weeks re-acquainting myself with the turf that formed my initial status as The Missouri Expatriate, I'm going to relay some refreshers to the newest escapee from The Shear-Me State.

  1. There are a lot more people here than there were when Nolan was chased out of town with pitchforks.
    Yep, Northwest Arkansas remains one of the fastest growing places in the nation. Two of the fastest growing counties in the 2010 Census were Washington and Benton counties, the two that make up the core of the region. In fact, Benton's rapid growth allowed them to surpass Washington (whose county seat is Fayetteville) as the second-most populous county in the Natural State, with Pulaski still in the top spot. With that in mind…
  2. Ojala que haya aprendido español, laosiano o aún marshalesa.
    The rapid growth of population and commerce in the area also includes a large influx of migrant workers from Latin America, Southeast Asia, and the Marshall Islands. Most of them are employed by the poultry behemoth Tyson and their competitors George's, Cargill and Cobb-Vantress. This influx has added a unique character to their places of residence. Be ready to translate to English several signs, especially along 8th Street in Rogers and the east end of Springdale.
  3. Forget Hy-Vee, QuikTrip, and Shakespeare's. They're still not here.
    Although the area has a plethora of independent pizza joints (Jim's Razorback, Eureka, Tim's), there's nothing like the unique feel of Shakespeare's. Also, it's going to be hit-or-miss finding Boulevard on tap (though I confess I don't know if Mike's the kind of guy who'll down a pint) or toasted ravioli.

    Despite Iowa-based Kum and Go making an aggressive push into the market (and fellow Hawkeye chain Casey's building its first store in Arkansas at Bella Vista's Highland Crossing) Hyvee still hasn't set designs on the area, with Walmart and Harps remaining the main game. (Yes, that means no Schnuks either!) And although QuikTrip is headquartered 90 miles to the west in Tulsa, they haven't touched the area either.
  4. There's still no Bella Vista bypass, either.
    Get used to stopping at lights in Jane and stop-and-go traffic between Lancashire Drive and Lowe's, because the Bella Vista Bypass remains nowhere near completion. It's the critical cog that's keeping MoDOT from having US-71 south of Joplin labelled I-49. And if we're lucky, a two-lane bypass will open in four years that'll just provide a shortcut to Hiwasse. Worse, MoDOT's had the funding ready for years, but now as Arkansas's getting their act together to bypass what is now the state's ninth-largest city, MoDOT sits at risk of a massive budget shortfall.
  5. Get ready to elect a congressman from Texarkana. Or Helena-West Helena.
    In spite of civic leaders and members of both parties saying how flagrant a gerrymander it is, members of Arkansas' re-districting committees are seriously considering a plan that would gerrymander Fayetteville out of the Third District (which reaches to Harrison, Fort Smith and Russellville) and into the last-remaining Democrat district, the fourth district in the southern half of the state. Supporters contend that Fayetteville's majority-Democrat population believe their votes are being wasted in a district that's been reliably Republican for 30-plus years. However, this gerrymander would be achieved by a "pig tail" through the Ozark National Forest in eastern Sebastian County, entirely surrounded by the Third District. And really, what does a college town surrounded by Walmart, Tyson, and J.B. Hunt have in common with the likes of DeQueen, Crossett and Lake Village?

    And yes, Helena consolidated with West Helena, and the city is in fact called "Helena-West Helena".
  6. Didn't like paying to see the Columbia Tribune online? It's worse with the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.
    While the Columbia Tribune allows you to view ten articles online before making you pay (and you can get around it by reading the Missourian or any other paper in Missouri), you only get an abstract with the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette before they insist you pay to view. Good luck finding any other daily to get freebie views; the closest is Neosho and Joplin, and they're owned by the same people who run the Kirksville Daily Express. Yeah.
  7. Politics and planes aren't a problem here.
    No need to worry about fans from either side of the aisle taking "damn planes" to see the Hogs play. Democrat Mike Beebe's well liked here despite Arkansas becoming increasingly red, and he rarely leaves the Little Rock area.
  8. Unfortunately, fluoridated water is.
    Despite the EPA advising polities to hold off on increasing the amount of fluoride in their drinking water, Beebe already signed legislation essentially overriding local standards and setting a statewide minimum. So once locating a dentist that's either in the Third or Fourth District that's going to charge a wee bit extra so the office staff can read entire articles online, check to make sure that iconic smile isn't getting scarred by streaks of fluoride.
  9. On the bright side, once the euphoric homecoming passes and Arkansas is still languishing in the just-as-lousy SEC West, XNA has plenty of flights to choose from to escape the throngs of fans that still have Houston Nutt's scalp on the end of their pitchforks.
    The only thing missing is Southwest, but sooner or later they'll come here. Heck, Southwest already has an in at Branson's airport once the acquisition of AirTran is complete.
So there's my refresher course. Good luck Mike, because we're both going to need it.