Fayetteville Finger, Meet Nolte's Notch

Being situated in Missouri's unofficial 118th County, naturally I've been keeping an eye on the redistricting efforts in the Natural State. Today, Arkansas's House approved a measure that would draw Fayetteville and southeastern Washington County into the Democrat-leaning Fourth Congressional District and out of the third, which currently is centered on the I-540 corridor. The vote went 52-46, with only one of Fayetteville's reps voting for the proposal.

So the talk of gerrymandering down here has giving me a sharpened set of eyes to review the proposed map that Missouri's House Redistricting Committee has placed on its Web site and discussed in earnest today. Naturally, the presumed "odd man out" Russ Carnahan joined with likely primary opponent William Clay in opposing the proposal to split St. Louis City and County among two districts. And with Missouri having to redraw to account for one less district, there will be plenty of fighting in the six weeks remaining in the General Assembly's session.

And while most of the state's focus will be on St. Louis (again, because a member of the Carnahan dynasty is pretty much the "odd man out"), lines have shifted considerably in the Western half of the state.

Consider the current setup of Kansas City and, by extension, the Athenian corridor better known as Highway 63: (derived from The National Atlas' map of Missouri's current delegations)

After the 2000 Census, Jackson County was split between three congressional districts, the bulk containing Kansas City in the Democrat-leaning fifth, a sliver in the stalwart fourth, and an increasingly conservative suburban region added to the expansive sixth. Columbia anchored the ninth district that covered Northeast Missouri and added counties along the northernmost reaches of the Ozarks.

Now, under the House's initial plan, we have this:

Lafayette, Ray, and Saline counties would be added to the fifth, and in exchange for losing Ike Skelton's stomping grounds, the fourth would receive Howard and Cooper counties from the sixth, plus Columbia in Boone County and the southern half of Randolph County, including all of Moberly. The remainder of the ninth would go to the sixth in the north and a new third district in the south. Miller County, which was originally at the edge of the district and jutting between the fourth and sixth, now becomes a critical retention point as the home county of incumbent Blaine Leuktemeyer. To that effect, Cole and most of Camden are added to this re-designated district.

The wonkiest drawings here, though, take place along the major byways of Kansas City's suburbs. With Jackson County's overall population showing little growth, adding Ike's core counties (traditionally Democrat) didn't do enough to bring the district's population up to snuff. Especially after the current portion in Cass County was moved to the fourth, as to ensure that incumbent Vicky Hartzler had the entirety of her home county. And with Eastern Jackson County solidly leaning Republican, placing them in the fifth would cause displeasure in their ranks, despite Sam Graves having to cross through the fifth to get there by car. So enter Clay County, a decent mix of suburbs to the south and west, farmland points north and east:


The line in red denotes the county line not marking the boundary between the two districts. Note that with Jackson to the south and Ray to the east, the fifth district would claim two significant population areas: Excelsior Springs and Lawson in the northeast corner, and several gentrified suburbs in the southwest. While these areas have historically leaned Democratic, this (as well as every other district being redrawn or not being redrawn for lack of enough population to warrant multiple districts in a state) guarantees nothing come November 2012.

Hence, labeling this convenient drawing of the line meandering through Jackson and Clay counties "Nolte's Notch", so named for State Representative and former Gladstone mayor Jerry Nolte. Nolte has generated plenty of attention with proposed this legislation this year, particularly his bills pegging the state's minimum wage to the federal minimum wage, requiring drivers tests to be administered in English, and eliminating the franchise tax over the next five years. Nolte, who is term-limited from the House after 2012, piqued the pundits' attention when he created an exploratory committee to look at a run for Congress when Graves was flirting at the prospect of challenging Claire McCaskill for the Senate.

Less than 24 hours after Nolte filed exploratory paperwork, Graves announced he would prefer staying in the House as chairman of the Committee on Small Businesses. When interviewed by Roll Call's Tricia Miller later that week, Nolte indicated that he would still consider a run for Congress if he happened to be going up against Emmanuel Cleaver, current representative from the fifth.

Cleaver, the AME preacher who was mayor of Kansas City from 1991 to 1999, received a scare from perennial Republican challenger Jacob Turk in 2010. Cleaver won re-election with only 53 percent of the vote, and now serves as chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus.

So lo and behold: Nolte's Notch, encompassing North Kansas City, Gladstone, Claycomo, Gracemor and Birmingham. A chance for him or any Republican who didn't want to challenge Graves or Hartzler to take their aim on Cleaver, and by extension anything remotely to the left of them.

Of course, the Senate has yet to release their proposal, and both are subject to changes large and small as the next six weeks play out. And it's not yet known how the Blue Dog counties of Ray, Lafayette, and Saline would react to being represented by either a minority Democrat from the urban core or a suburbanite Republican from a county that backed Proposition B by a two-to-one margin. But if the House's plan were to hold firm, Missouri could end up with one Democrat out of eight in their House delegation. Presuming, rather prematurely, the chips fall the same way in 2012 the way they did in 2010.