IT'S ON!!

Begin enduring four weeks of campaign slogans, nationalist parties with no chance for even the guest room at 10 Downing clamouring for publicity, and yours truly finding ways to compare Gordon Brown to Harry Truman even though he's been critical of this post-Blair government. The 2010 general election campaign in the UK is underway.

The BBC has a wonderful summary page that provides live updates and, if you are in the UK (or can convince the Beeb that your IP is in the UK), live video of various campaign events.

Already most media are talking about the prospect of a hung parliament, a rather derisive way of saying minority or coalition government, which is more prevalent in other Westminster-style legislatures like Canada (such as the current minority government of Stephen Harper) and Israel (which consistently generates coalition governments). A snap poll conducted on Facebook today by Channel 4 News, as a show of the significance social media networking sites will have on this election, also indicates the prospect of a hung parliament.

Should a hung parliament come about, it would essentially be a victory in the eye (er, eyes) of the Prime Minister. Even if the Conservatives are able to gain the most votes and seats, Brown as the current occupant would be able to stick around until a clear majority came about to defeat his government. From this position he could also establish a stable governing coalition or cadre of small parties (namely Plaid Cymru & SNP, partially ironic considering both are Labour's strongest challengers in Wales & Scotland!) willing to back him on confidence issues. And if the Conservatives, as polls now suggest, have fallen into hung parliament territory following their commanding lead throughout most of 2009's surveys, it will represent a collapse comparable to that of (bottoms up for anyone crazy enough to start a drinking game around this) Dewey in '48 and about half the elections in Canada the past decade.

Only twice since the watershed election of 1945 has Britain had a minority government, both during the 1970s. The first was formed in February 1974 by Labour's Harold Wilson when they claimed a four-seat advantage over the Tories; however, Wilson was unable to gain the support of enough parties to form a coalition (the third-place Liberals only had 18 seats) and had to call another election in October. While Labour won an outright majority in that election, enough by-election defeats and Wilson's sudden decision in 1976 to retire as Prime Minister & return to the backbenches resulted in another minority government led by Harold Macmillan. That minority government was toppled by Margaret Thatcher's Conservatives in 1979.

Should a hung parliament come about, expect any or all of the following:

1. Sterling's value at $1.30 by the Fourth of July, USD if the almighty quid's lucky.
2. A new election right after Christmas (when John Denver takes the Christmas #1!)
3. George Osborne or Alistair Darling getting the boot to make room for Vince Cable as Chancellor of the Exchequer, as part of a deal to gain the Liberal Democrats' participation in a coalition government.
4. Nationalist parties to play a role in a coalition. For Labour, they'll try and garner the support of Plaid Cymru and the SNP, on top of their ties with the SDLP of Northern Ireland, and possibly a Green or two that could get elected from Brighton. The Conservatives, which have next-to-no influence in Scotland but a growing base in Wales, will seek the support of both Unionist parties in the Ulster counties.
5. Even more pages from the Obama playbook (and maybe even Sarah Palin's) making their way across the pond. Again, this is the first election since the advent of Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and all sorts of other social networking pages, on top of mobile phones & devices that can allow people to watch campaign speeches from the comfort of a National Express bus stuck in traffic on the M25. Also, it's the first election since Tony Blair left office with military operations in Iraq still ongoing, MPs were building duck moats and teenage lover's coffee houses with taxpayer funds, resentment among voters will be high.
   
   A hung parliament will resolve few if any of these issues, leading to possibly more resentment and demonstrations, along with all parties using these media to keep getting their various message across.

Of course, we have four weeks to see this play out. All aboard!