Cupcake-Gate 2010: Shuffling might not appese Sinn Féin

Owing to the title of my last post on the tense political situation in Northern Ireland, I am henceforth declaring this scandal to be known as Cupcake-Gate. (Where have you gone, 'Geordie' Georgie Best? all Ulster turns their lonely eyes to you, woo woo woo.)

Peter Robinson will take a six-week leave from his post as First Minister so he can patch things up with his wife Iris and refute charges that he covered up her improper expenses.

Robinson, who was facing calls to resign from his leadership roles at both Stormont and Westminster, where he leads the nine Democratic Unionists, made the announcement today on the first day of business in the new year. Although the DUP tossed Mrs. Robinson from their ranks after her admitting to an affair with a 19-year-old entrepreneur in 2008, its leadership declared 100 percent support for Mr. Robinson's role as party leader. (This does include the blessing of the Rev. Ian Paisley.)

While Robinson takes time off to salvage his political career, the enterprise minister Arlene Foster will assume the duties of First Minister. Foster will have to hold steadfast against threats from Sinn Féin to pull out of the power sharing agreement that has kept Stormont in operation in 2007.

Their threats, however, stem from the issue of whether Stormont should assuming policing and judicial duties from Westminster, an issue over which the DUP and Sinn Féin have tussled since Stormont regained devolved autonomy. Even as dissident republicans are blamed for bombing the patrol car of a Catholic police officer, the issue over how soon Northern Ireland should control its own forces threatens the stability of the government. With Foster being the DUP's third First Minister, Sinn Féin would need to visit their GP if they couldn't smell weakness and instability.

If Sinn Féin's Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness were to resign in protest, or had Mr. Robinson been ousted, then both figures would have been ousted per the peace deal. If the two parties don't agree to resolve the issue, then Stormont is dissolved, and Westminster's Secretary for Northern Ireland Affairs will either need to set a new election date (which will wind up being one month before the general election) or recommend that the Prime Minister re-impose direct rule of Northern Ireland from London. This just might creep into the general election, resulting in Plaid Cymru and the SNP gaining a bloody shirt to wave toward their fellow nationalists.

For Stormont to survive, a true desire to work beyond union/republican, Protestant/Catholic divides must take place. If that happens, then the ultimate peace has been achieved. If not, look out Brussels.