Hidden in Stormont's pantry, with the cupcakes

The ongoing saga on the peace process in Northern Ireland has taken a bizarre turn involving power, sex, money, and anti-depressants. While the last of Northern Ireland's paramilitary groups are decommissioning all their weapons, the battlefield may reignite, all thanks to the startling shenanigans unveiled by Belfast media this past week. (Granted, that battlefield will likely be strictly political.)

In the halls of Stormont, Northern Ireland's devolved government, its first minister Peter Robinson is now under fire, accused of withholding information about business transactions involving his wife Iris. The accusations were presented in BBC Northern Ireland's Spotlight programme, where 21-year-old Kirk McCambley admitted receiving £50,000 from Mrs. Robinson that she secured from two property developers for the purpose of the two opening a café in a council development project in Castlereagh, a suburban borough of Belfast. McCambley's bid was the only one submitted to the Borough Council, on which Mrs. Robinson serves (in addition to being an MP & MLA).

Earlier this week, Mrs. Robinson admitted to having an affair with McCambley starting in March 2008, which lasted six months. She also admitted that she attempted suicide after her husband found out about the affair a year later. The revelation coincides with Mrs. Robinson's decision to step down from politics altogether over the next year. While other Northern Ireland parties agreed to give the Robinsons space so they can attempt to save their marriage, revelations of Mr. Robinson's alleged role in helping his wife secure the back £50,000 loan from McCambley have negated that armistice, and potentially put the existence of a devolved government in Northern Ireland into jeopardy.

Under the Good Friday Agreement of 1998, Northern Ireland regained devolved powers from Parliament under a power-sharing arrangement. That authority was suspended twice in 2001 for 24 hours and again in 2002, with that suspension only lifted five years later when both Unionist parties and the republican Sinn Féin agreed to a new arrangement, complete with disarmament mandates for paramilitary groups possibly lined to all parties.

The Robinsons are considered the "power couple" of the Democratic Unionist Party, which over the past 15 years has overtaken the Ulster Unionists as the principal Unionist party in Northern Ireland. With nine members in the House of Commons (led by Mr. Robinson, succeeding the party's co-founder, the Rev. Ian Paisley), the DUP are currently the largest party in Parliament not named Labour, Conservative, or Liberal Democrat. And they're not novices to trouble, especially in the case of Mrs. Robinson: in 2008, she called homosexuality "an abomination" days after a gay man was assaulted in Northern Ireland. And when reports emerge last year that the Robinsons claimed expenses on the same bill worth £1223, amongst other reimbursement claims totalling almost £325,000 from Westminster and Stormont, Mrs. Robinson called the reports "a witch hunt".

Should these accusations prove the downfall of the Robinsons, the DUP will have a power gap that could result in an imbalance between the Unionists and Nationalists. At the moment, the deputy first minister is Martin McGuinness of Sinn Féin. Were the Robinsons forced out, although the DUP retain the largest grouping in Stormont, the turmoil of having another new first minister in the same terms will convey considerable weakness, especially as general elections approach within five months. While both the DUP and UUP are pledging their support to Conservatives should the Tories be in a position to form the next government, the damage from these allegations could damage both parties, as UUP's decline over the past ten years also also resulted in more seats for the Labour-backing SLDP and the highest numbers of Sinn Féin MPs in Parliament. (Again, Sinn Féin's MPs will not sit in Parliament as they refuse to swear an oath to The Queen.)

Simon and Garfunkel might have a repeat number one in the UK this week, or least parodies in English, Irish and Ulster Gaelic. Perhaps their lyrics are chillingly accurate for the Robinsons right now:

“Laugh about it, shout about it, when you've got to choose,
Either way you look at this you lose…”